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The next-gen Grasshopper optimization tool.

Ridge

Overview

Ridge regression (L2-regularized linear regression) fits a linear model to the trial data and uses the regression coefficients as a surrogate for the response surface. |β| measures each parameter's contribution.

Formula

y^=β0+β1x1+β2x2++βpxp\hat{y} = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_1 + \beta_2 x_2 + \cdots + \beta_p x_p

Objective (L2-regularized least squares):

minβyXβ2+αβ2(α=1.0)\min_\beta |y - X\beta|^2 + \alpha|\beta|^2 \quad (\alpha = 1.0)

Closed-form solution:

β=(XX+αI)1Xy\beta = (X^\top X + \alpha I)^{-1} X^\top y

Preprocessing

Z-score standardization applied to each column of X before fitting:

xj=xjμjσj\tilde{x}_j = \frac{x_j - \mu_j}{\sigma_j}j=σjxjμj

If σ_j ≈ 0, set σ_j = 1.0 (constant column guard). y is mean-centered only (y_c = y − ȳ).

The system is solved via Cholesky (LLT) decomposition (faer). X'X + αI is always symmetric positive-definite for α > 0, making Cholesky the optimal solver; if the decomposition fails, Tunny Dashboard falls back to a zero coefficient vector.

Application to PDP

1D PDP uses the following closed-form approximation:

PDP(v)=yˉ+βjvμjσj\text{PDP}(v) = \bar{y} + \beta_j \cdot \frac{v - \mu_j}{\sigma_j}

The contribution of the other parameters cancels out on average. The 2D PDP adds the terms for the two parameters:

fˉ(v1,v2)=yˉ+βj1v1μj1σj1+βj2v2μj2σj2\bar{f}(v_1, v_2) = \bar{y} + \beta_{j_1} \cdot \frac{v_1 - \mu_{j_1}}{\sigma_{j_1}} + \beta_{j_2} \cdot \frac{v_2 - \mu_{j_2}}{\sigma_{j_2}}

Because the Ridge surrogate is a linear model, it does not return confidence bands (upper/lower bounds).

R² Interpretation

Meaning
≈ 1.0 Linear model fits well. Surface is reliable.
< 0.5 Nonlinear relationship — use Random Forest, LightGBM, or GP-FITC.

Strengths and Limitations

Strengths

  • Extremely fast: O(n·p²)
  • Stable under multicollinearity due to L2 regularization
  • Coefficient sign shows direction of influence (increasing parameter → objective goes up/down)

Limitations

  • Assumes linearity: underestimates nonlinear effects
  • No interaction terms (cannot capture parameter interaction)
  • May miss important nonlinear structure visible in Random Forest / Gaussian Process

When to Use

Objective looks roughly linear?              → Ridge (fastest)
Need a quick first approximation?            → Ridge, then upgrade if R² < 0.5
Nonlinear / noisy / tabular?                 → LightGBM or Random Forest
Smooth nonlinear?                            → GP-FITC (or GP-VFE / GP-MOE)

References

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