Ridge
Overview
Ridge regression (L2-regularized linear regression) fits a linear model to the trial data and uses the regression coefficients as a surrogate for the response surface. |β| measures each parameter's contribution.
Formula
Objective (L2-regularized least squares):
Closed-form solution:
Preprocessing
Z-score standardization applied to each column of X before fitting:
If σ_j ≈ 0, set σ_j = 1.0 (constant column guard). y is mean-centered only (y_c = y − ȳ).
The system is solved via Cholesky (LLT) decomposition (faer). X'X + αI is always symmetric positive-definite for α > 0, making Cholesky the optimal solver; if the decomposition fails, Tunny Dashboard falls back to a zero coefficient vector.
Application to PDP
1D PDP uses the following closed-form approximation:
The contribution of the other parameters cancels out on average. The 2D PDP adds the terms for the two parameters:
Because the Ridge surrogate is a linear model, it does not return confidence bands (upper/lower bounds).
R² Interpretation
| R² | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ≈ 1.0 | Linear model fits well. Surface is reliable. |
| < 0.5 | Nonlinear relationship — use Random Forest, LightGBM, or GP-FITC. |
Strengths and Limitations
Strengths
- Extremely fast: O(n·p²)
- Stable under multicollinearity due to L2 regularization
- Coefficient sign shows direction of influence (increasing parameter → objective goes up/down)
Limitations
- Assumes linearity: underestimates nonlinear effects
- No interaction terms (cannot capture parameter interaction)
- May miss important nonlinear structure visible in Random Forest / Gaussian Process
When to Use
Objective looks roughly linear? → Ridge (fastest)
Need a quick first approximation? → Ridge, then upgrade if R² < 0.5
Nonlinear / noisy / tabular? → LightGBM or Random Forest
Smooth nonlinear? → GP-FITC (or GP-VFE / GP-MOE)References
- Hoerl, A. E., & Kennard, R. W. (1970). Ridge Regression: Biased Estimation for Nonorthogonal Problems. Technometrics, 12(1), 55–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1970.10488634